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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-06 16:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 22.8, -123.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 22
2019-09-06 16:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 061452 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Corrected headline ...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 123.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next 24 hours. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-06 16:39:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 14:39:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 15:38:31 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-06 16:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection associated with Juliette has decreased in coverage over the past 24 hours, however, the remaining convection still wraps completely around the center. Subjective and objective raw T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS have fallen below 4.0, however the current intensity (CI) numbers are still at 4.5. Using a blend of these T- and CI-numbers, as NHC typically does during the weakening phase, yields an initial wind speed of 65 kt for this advisory. Juliette is currently over SSTs of around 24.5 degrees Celsius, with even cooler waters and a more stable and drier air mass along the predicted path of the storm. These conditions should cause gradual weakening over the next day or so, and Juliette is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 to 48 hours. Recent fixes show that Juliette has turned west-northwestward or 300/10 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward within the low-level tradewind flow. The dynamical models are in better agreement today on the both the track and forward speed of the cyclone, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2019-09-06 16:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 061436 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 24 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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