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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-05 22:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE FINALLY RESUMES WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 21.3, -120.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-09-05 22:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 094 WTPZ21 KNHC 052032 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-05 16:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 14:43:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Sep 2019 15:38:59 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-05 16:42:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051442 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 There has been little overall change in Juliette's cloud pattern this morning. The hurricane still has a large, ragged eye, but the cloud tops within the surrounding ring of convection have warmed during the past couple of hours. Earlier microwave imagery showed a well-defined low-level eye that is located a little south of the satellite fixes from TAFB and SAB. The various satellite intensity estimates range from 77 to 85 kt, so the initial wind speed of 80 kt is maintained for this advisory. Juliette will be moving over gradually lower sea surface temperatures and into a more stable air mass but the vertical shear is expected to remain fairly low during the next couple days. This will likely result in a somewhat slower rate of weakening than is typical for east Pacific hurricanes moving over cool SSTs. Later in the period, southwesterly shear is expected to increase which should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity foreast is closest to the SHIPS intensity model. The initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt. A general northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of the mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest, and then the west, is expected over the next couple of days as Juliette gradually weakens and is steered by the easterly low- to mid-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope but is a little faster than the previous advisory to be closer to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.6N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-05 16:41:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... ...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 20.6, -119.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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