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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-05-17 16:45:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Visible satellite imagery reveals a couple of convective bands over the eastern semicircle of the tropical storm, but convection is sparse over the western portion of the circulation. The latest reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft show peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 48 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 35-40 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt. The plane has reported a minimum pressure of 1002-1003 mb, which is down a few millibars from the previous flight. Arthur has a little more than 24 hours in which to gradually strengthen. The storm will be traversing the relatively warm waters of the Gulf stream, and the vertical shear is forecast to remain low through early Monday. After that time, increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should put a halt to the tropical cyclone strengthening processes. Baroclinic forcing is likely to help the post-tropical cyclone maintain its strengthen through extratropical transition. Later in the forecast period, the global model guidance shows weakening as the frontal gradients decrease. The storm is moving north-northeastward or 015/8 kt. Arthur is expected to begin moving a little faster later today and tonight as a mid-level trough approaches the eastern United States. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn eastward within the westerly steering flow. Although the dynamical models are in agreement on the overall scenario, there remains some spread as to how close the center of Arthur will track to the North Carolina Outer Bands. The GFS and HWRF remain along the western side of the guidance while the ECMWF and UKMET bracket the eastern side. The NHC track lies near the model consensus and little change was required to the previous track through 36-48 hours. After that time, the track guidance spread increases with the ECMWF showing a much faster east-southeastward motion than the GFS. The NHC forecast remains near the consensus after 48 hours, but there is less confidence in that portion of the track prediction. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.5N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 32.0N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 34.3N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 37.3N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0000Z 37.1N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z 36.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1200Z 35.5N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-17 16:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 30.5, -77.4 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 4
2020-05-17 16:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 77.4W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 77.4 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-05-17 16:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 171444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 57(61) 8(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW RIVER NC 34 8 45(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 35(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 9 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-05-17 16:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 343 WTNT21 KNHC 171444 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 77.4W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 77.4W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 77.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.0N 76.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.3N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.3N 70.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.1N 68.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 36.5N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 77.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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