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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2020-05-17 10:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170847 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 16(17) 37(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 26(27) 18(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 24(25) 12(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 16(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)

2020-05-17 10:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 30.0, -77.6 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-05-17 10:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170847 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 77.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 0SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 77.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 77.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 77.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.2N 76.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.5N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.3N 69.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 37.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 77.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 3

2020-05-17 10:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170847 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 77.6W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 77.6 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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