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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-17 13:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 11:54:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 09:24:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-17 13:53:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 30.3, -77.4 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-05-17 13:53:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 800 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...ARTHUR MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 77.4W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 77.4 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown / Blake
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-17 10:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 08:52:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 08:52:59 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-05-17 10:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170848 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Arthur has not changed much in organization overnight. The storm features a large curved convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the low-level center appears to be exposed to the west of that band. The intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the cyclone around 12Z which should provide a good estimate of Arthur's intensity. Although Arthur will be crossing back over the Gulf Stream tonight and Monday, vertical shear is forecast to steadily increase during that time. With these counteracting influences on intensity change, only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24-36 hours. The official forecast is close to the model consensus and is similar to the previous one. In 2-3 days, some strengthening due to baroclinic processes is possible, since the global models depict extratropical transition around that time. Later in the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows weakening as the frontal gradients decrease. The storm has been moving a little to the left of the previous estimates and the motion is now around 015/8 kt. An approaching mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward during the next 48 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, Arthur or its post-tropical remnants should turn eastward within a general westerly flow field. There has been a bit of a westward shift in much of the track guidance for the next 1-2 days, which has necessitated a leftward adjustment of the official forecast track. Since the new NHC forecast is now closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks, the Tropical Storm Watch has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning for that area. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.2N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 33.2N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 35.5N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 36.9N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 37.3N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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