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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-17 04:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 02:56:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 02:56:03 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-17 04:55:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat May 16 the center of Arthur was located near 29.4, -77.7 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 2
2020-05-17 04:55:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170254 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 77.7W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the Watch area by Sunday morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 77.7 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected tonight and Sunday. After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida and Georgia tonight and Sunday, and then move near or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Monday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-05-17 04:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 127 WTNT41 KNHC 170253 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the tropical cyclone east of Florida has recently found maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of 45-46 kt to the southeast and east of the center, which equates to surface winds of 34-35 kt, along with uncontaminated SFMR surface wind speeds of 33-36 kt. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion estimate remains north-northeastward or 030/11 kt. Arthur made a slight northeastward jog earlier this evening, but now appears to have returned to its previous base course. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone well offshore the coasts of Florida and Georgia. A sharp shortwave trough currently moving across the southern Plains is forecast to dig east-southeast to southeastward over the next 48 hours, which will act to accelerate and eject Arthur more poleward. The more the shortwave trough digs and loses latitude, the more Arthur could get pulled closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks as per the GFS and HWRF scenarios. In contrast, the ECMWF and UKMET models show the shortwave losing amplitude quickly and lifting out, which acts to push Arthur farther away from the United States east coast. For now, the new NHC forecast track closely follows the various consensus models, which are about midway between the GFS-HWRF and ECMWF-UKMET solutions. However, the track was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous advisory track due mainly to the more eastward initial position. It should be noted that forecast track uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like Arthur. Arthur has moved off of the warm waters of the Gulfstream current and currently is passing over a cold pool with SSTs near 24.5 deg C. These cooler waters should prevent any significant strengthening in the very near term. By 24 hours however, the cyclone is forecast to pass back over the warmer waters of the Gulfstream while moving into a very low vertical wind shear regime. These conditions, coupled with some cooler air aloft, should allow more vigorous convection to develop near the center, resulting in more strengthening as Arthur passes near the North Carolina coast. Extratropical transition should occur in about 48-60 hours over the much cooler waters of the North Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and is similar to the previous intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are possible there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.4N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-05-17 04:53:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 545 FONT11 KNHC 170253 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) X(15) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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