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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-05 04:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 02:33:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 02:50:48 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 30
2015-10-05 04:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050233 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with the hurricane have diminished. Microwave imagery indicates that the inner core has become less distinct, although the convective banding features remain well defined. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane reported maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 87 kt over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. This corresponds to an intensity of about 75 kt. Only slight cooling of waters along the path of the cyclone is indicated over the next couple of days, since Joaquin will be moving along the Gulf Stream. Dynamical guidance does not show the vertical shear becoming strong until about 48 hours. Slow weakening is predicted for the next couple of days, in general agreement with the SHIPS guidance. By 72 hours the sea surface temperatures should cool significantly, and the global models depict the system as embedded within a baroclinic zone. Therefore the forecast shows Joaquin becoming extratropical by that time. The initial motion continues to be north-northeastward, or 025/11 kt. A short wave ridge ahead of the hurricane appears to have caused some temporary slowing of the forward motion. In a day or two, the ridge flattens out, and the cyclone should begin to accelerate within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast through 48 hours is close to the multi-model consensus. The track, intensity, and wind radii for 72 hours and beyond are based on the consensus as well as guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for at least the next several hours, with possible winds to hurricane force in squalls especially at elevated locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 33.1N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 34.5N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 36.2N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 37.8N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 39.5N 54.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 42.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 47.0N 16.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-05 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WHILE PASSING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 4 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 33.1, -65.5 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 30
2015-10-05 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 ...JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA WHILE PASSING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 65.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will begin to move away from Bermuda on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force-winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A sustained wind speed of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda through tonight, with possible gusts to near hurricane force. STORM SURGE: A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 30
2015-10-05 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050231 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 65.5W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 300SW 540NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 65.5W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.5N 64.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.2N 63.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.8N 59.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.5N 54.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.5N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 47.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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