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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-30 22:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302055 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 There has been little change in the organization of Joaquin during the past several hours. While the hurricane continues to produce cloud tops colder than -80C in the eyewall, the eye has not become better defined since the last advisory. Satellite intensity estimates are 77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the advisory intensity is now 75 kt. The initial motion is 225/7. The shortwave ridge causing this motion is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States. Thus, a generally southwestward motion is expected for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north as the trough becomes the dominant steering mechanism. There is an increased disagreement between the GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and NAVGEM models versus the ECMWF since the last advisory. The ECMWF has continued its forecast of showing a northeastward motion after 72 hours, taking Joaquin just west of Bermuda and out to sea. The other models have all shifted their forecasts to the left and now call for landfall in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states, followed by merger with the baroclinic trough. Given the shift in the non-ECMWF models, a major westward adjustment has been made to the forecast track at 96 and 120 hours, bringing the center of Joaquin near or over portions of the mid-Atlantic states. Due to the use of the ECMWF in the consensus models, the new track lies near the various consensus models. However, it lies well to the east of the GFS and the other similar models. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission, which, along with special rawinsonde launches, hopefully will reduce the spread of the guidance. There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since the last advisory. Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours, possibly including strong winds seen at 400 mb in recent dropsondes from the G-IV aircraft. However, since it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment, there is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so. After 36 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent southerly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S. trough. While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should occur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur through at least 48 hours. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in 48-72 hours, and it is possible it could be stronger than currently forecast. After 72 hours, increasing shear, cold air intrusion, and land interaction should cause weakening and the start of extratropical transition. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion. 2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas. 3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service is launching extra balloon soundings. 4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. 5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be required as early as Thursday evening. 6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days, which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 24.3N 73.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 24.0N 73.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 23.9N 74.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 25.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 30.5N 74.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-09-30 22:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 20:54:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 20:50:50 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-30 22:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 24.3, -73.1 with movement SW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-09-30 22:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 302050 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 16(35) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 17(37) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 15(43) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 14(37) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 13(47) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 13(48) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 14(45) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 7(28) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 42(52) 8(60) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 4(27) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 36(47) 6(53) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 5(40) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 4(30) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 3(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 6( 8) 25(33) 16(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 34 2 9(11) 20(31) 10(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 18 49(67) 19(86) 4(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) GREAT EXUMA 50 2 20(22) 23(45) 7(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) GREAT EXUMA 64 X 10(10) 15(25) 4(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30) SAN SALVADOR 34 92 5(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 41 31(72) 9(81) 2(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) SAN SALVADOR 64 16 31(47) 11(58) 3(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) MAYAGUANA 34 31 16(47) 7(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) MAYAGUANA 50 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) CAMAGUEY 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 12
2015-09-30 22:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 302050 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 73.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island and Bimini. The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas, including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador * Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island and Bimini A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bimini A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands, but excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 73.1 West. Joaquin is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected Thursday night and Friday. The center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday, and near or over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin could become a major hurricane by Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas Thursday night or Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas and 5 to 10 inches over the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern Bahamas. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in the central Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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