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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-09-29 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2015 14:41:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2015 14:50:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-29 16:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 291445 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24 hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of the system, and restricted over the northern part of the circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt, which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should provide a better estimate of intensity. Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72 hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern, but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas, and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The 00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5 days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track forecast is very low. The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening, which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-09-29 16:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 291436 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 1(19) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 7(26) 1(27) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 4(17) X(17) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 15(20) 6(26) X(26) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 19(33) 9(42) 1(43) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-29 16:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 26.5, -70.8 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-09-29 16:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 291435 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 70.8W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 70.8W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 70.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 70.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BURKE
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