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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 10
2015-09-30 10:37:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300837 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N 73.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N 73.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 74.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.2N 74.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.3N 73.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 33.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2015-09-30 10:37:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 300837 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 16(37) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 10(30) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 1(19) 1(20) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 2( 3) 13(16) 18(34) 9(43) 1(44) X(44) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 10(13) 12(25) 5(30) 1(31) X(31) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 12(13) 27(40) 21(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) GREAT EXUMA 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) SAN SALVADOR 34 7 58(65) 19(84) 9(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) SAN SALVADOR 50 1 22(23) 25(48) 12(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65) SAN SALVADOR 64 X 9( 9) 15(24) 9(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) MAYAGUANA 34 1 9(10) 9(19) 11(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) MAYAGUANA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-09-30 07:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 05:35:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2015 03:04:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-30 07:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 25.5, -72.0 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 9A
2015-09-30 07:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300535 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 ...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 72.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests in the northwest Bahamas should monitor the progress of Joaquin. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joaquin was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. Joaquin is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is forecast to become a hurricane later this morning. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the central Bahamas by Wednesday night, with hurricane conditions possible by late Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Joaquin is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the remainder of the Central Bahamas through Thursday morning, with 1 to 2 inches expected over the Northwest and Southeast Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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