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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-09-29 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290832 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 70.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.6N 71.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.7N 72.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.8N 72.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.1N 73.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 36.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 70.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-09-29 05:12:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2015 02:38:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2015 03:07:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-09-29 04:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290237 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 Satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the depression has increased and become better organized during the past several hours. In addition, the low-level center now appears to have moved closer to the convection than it was earlier. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is set at that value, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Joaquin. This intensity analysis also agrees with the reconnaissance aircraft data from earlier today that showed winds just under tropical-storm force. The center of Joaquin has been moving southwestward during the last several hours, but it is expected to begin moving slowly westward overnight. This westward track is forecast to continue for a couple of days while a mid-level ridge remains to the north of the storm. After that time, a trough is anticipated to amplify over the eastern United States, which should cause Joaquin to turn northward and accelerate. There is considerable spread in the models, mainly due to the timing of when and how fast the storm makes the northward turn, due to differences in the evolution of the trough. In general, the guidance envelope has shifted southward for the first couple of days and then westward after that time. The official track forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but additional southward and westward adjustment may be needed in subsequent advisories. Northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is currently affecting Joaquin, causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located to the southeast of the center. The shear is expected to lessen some during the next couple of days, which in combination with warm water and high relative humidity values should allow Joaquin to strengthen. The official intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, but is lower than the intensity model consensus at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 26.7N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 26.9N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 27.2N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 27.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 28.6N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 32.4N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 38.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-29 04:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN... ...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 26.7, -70.4 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-09-29 04:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 70.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 70.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 70.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.9N 71.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 72.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 27.2N 72.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.4N 73.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.6N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 32.4N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 38.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 70.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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