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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-01 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 the center of Marie was located near 14.8, -118.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 9
2020-10-01 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 233 WTPZ33 KNHC 010834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 118.1W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 118.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight with some additional strengthening possible through Friday. Marie is then forecast to begin weakening this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-10-01 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010834 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 54 6(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 31(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 64(70) 9(79) 1(80) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 10(47) X(47) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) X(26) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 8(29) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-01 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 269 WTPZ23 KNHC 010834 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-01 04:51:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 02:51:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 02:51:41 GMT
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