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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)

2020-10-02 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Marie was located near 16.5, -124.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 14

2020-10-02 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 021447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 124.3W ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 124.3 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible later today or tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg/Reinhart

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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-10-02 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 021447 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 124.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 210SW 225NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 124.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 124.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/REINHART

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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2020-10-02 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 021447 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 40(43) 33(76) 11(87) 1(88) X(88) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 13(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) 2(24) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Marie Graphics

2020-10-02 10:46:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 08:46:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 08:46:58 GMT

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