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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-10-02 10:44:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020844 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie has strengthened further since the last advisory, with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now at 115 kt and the CIMSS ADT estimate now near 130 kt. However, during the past couple of hours, satellite imagery shows that the eye has become less well defined. It is unclear at this time whether this is because the hurricane is starting an eyewall replacement or whether it has peaked in intensity. The initial intensity for this advisory is increased to a possibly conservative 115 kt. Marie currently has good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/13 kt as the hurricane is being steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. The system is expected to move toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slower forward speed during the next several days as it approaches the western periphery of the ridge and a broad mid-latitude trough well off the California coast. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario through 72 h, but there remains increasing spread after that time, which is likely due to model differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the trough influences its steering. The guidance shifted a little to the north of the previous guidance through 72 h, so the new forecast track is also nudged northward during that time. The new track is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. If Marie is not undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, conditions appear favorable for additional strengthening during the next 12-18 h. After that, the system will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and entraining dryer air, which should cause weakening. An faster weakening is expected after 36 h due to increasing westerly shear. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and through 72 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-02 10:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Marie was located near 16.2, -123.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 13
2020-10-02 10:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020843 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 123.2W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 123.2 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected today, with weakening forecast to begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-10-02 10:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020843 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 124.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 126.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.9N 129.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 130.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 131.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-10-02 10:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020843 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 13 2(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 125W 34 1 9(10) 7(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 45(69) 18(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 23(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 2(23) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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