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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-02 04:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 02:36:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 03:25:15 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-02 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020234 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Marie is still strengthening this evening. Satellite images indicate that the hurricane has a well-defined compact eye with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that feature. The Dvorak classifications at 0000Z were T5.5/102 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but since the cyclone has continued to strengthen, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. This value is below the latest Dvorak ADT numbers that are currently around 6.2/120 kt. Marie has strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past 24 hours. Satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest on the south side of a mid-level ridge, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/13 kt. The system is expected to move slower to the west-northwest or northwest during the next several days as it nears the western periphery of the ridge and moves toward a broad trough well off the California coast. The models are in fair agreement in the short term, but there is a notable amount of spread in the guidance in 4 to 5 days, likely due to differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the trough influences its steering. The NHC track forecast remains near the consensus aids, and is largely an update of the previous one. The major hurricane will likely continue to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours while it remains in quite favorable conditions of low vertical wind shear, a moist air mass, and over warm 28-29 C SSTs. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles could occur during that time, which might cause fluctuations in the cyclone's strength. By Saturday, Marie is expected to level off in intensity and then rapidly weaken when the hurricane crosses the 26-deg-C SST isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing west-southwesterly shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast remains above the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the bulk of the models beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 122.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-02 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 the center of Marie was located near 15.6, -122.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 12
2020-10-02 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 122.1W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 122.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-10-02 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020234 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 6 19(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 45(53) 31(84) 1(85) X(85) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 33(50) 1(51) X(51) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 2(26) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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