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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-08 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-07 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072037 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 106.8W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Kevin is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Sunday, and spread northward to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-07 22:37:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072037 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 106.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071450 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 105.5W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 105.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight, and could become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-07 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071450 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 105.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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