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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-02 22:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 022039 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Public Advisory Number 2
2020-10-02 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 85.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-10-02 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 86.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.6N 87.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N 87.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 88.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-10-02 20:52:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 502 WTNT35 KNHC 021740 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 84.9W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by early Saturday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Public Advisory Number 1
2020-10-02 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 84.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche, and a Tropical Storm Watch south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya and west of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 84.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by early Saturday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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