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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Public Advisory Number 1A

2020-10-05 01:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042332 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 76.9W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is expected to pass just south of Jamaica tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands on Monday, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-10-04 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 042056 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 87.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 88.1W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 88.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 88.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.7N 89.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.3N 90.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.8N 91.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 91.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 92.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.2N 92.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 88.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Public Advisory Number 1

2020-10-04 22:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042056 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Isle of Youth and the Cuba provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La Habana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is expected to pass near or just southwest of Jamaica tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba. Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-10-04 22:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 042055 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE CUBA PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LA HABANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 23

2020-10-04 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 042031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 129.5W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 129.5 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could become a tropical depression or remnant low by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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