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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-03 16:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.3N 88.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 89.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 289 WTPZ33 KNHC 031435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 126.9W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 126.9 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with little change in speed is expected to continue through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening later today, and a more rapid weakening trend is forecast into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031434 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 345NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 95NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-10-03 13:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031144 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 87.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 87.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula today. After landfall, some weakening is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-03 11:00:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 847 WTNT35 KNHC 030900 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...GAMMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 86.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Dzilam, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula west of Dzilam to Progreso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. After landfall, a slight weakening is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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