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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-04 16:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 88.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 88.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 88.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.6N 88.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 89.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 91.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 8
2020-10-04 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040852 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...GAMMA LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 88.2W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is forecast today. Gamma should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected today, followed by weakening tonight or Monday, which should continue into Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding. Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another area of heavy rain will impact southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-04 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040852 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CANCUN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.6N 88.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.7N 88.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 90.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 91.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 92.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 21
2020-10-04 10:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 128.1W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 128.1 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward with little change in forward speed for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday, with further weakening likely through the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-10-04 10:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040832 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 128.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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