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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-11-18 15:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-18 15:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...WEAK DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY... As of 9:00 AM CST Mon Nov 18 the center of Twenty-one-E was located near 12.3, -105.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Public Advisory Number 10
2019-11-18 15:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 ...WEAK DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 105.5W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Latto/Mello
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-11-18 09:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180833 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Organized deep convection had been sparse for a few hours, but some cold cloud tops have recently developed near the estimated center location. Infrared imagery shows a much larger area of deep convection farther to the north and northeast, but this feature lacks curvature and doesn't seem to be directly associated with the depression's circulation. A partial ASCAT-A pass around 0315Z showed only 15-20 kt winds to the east of the center, but the initial intensity is being held, perhaps generously, at 25 kt since the entire circulation was not sampled. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, and while the global models show the circulation dissipating by 72 h, it wouldn't be surprising if this happened much sooner. The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery, but based on the earlier scatterometer data and the latest satellite fixes, the initial motion estimate is 305/06. The system should be steered generally westward from now until dissipation by a weak low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies near the north edge of the guidance envelope close to HCCA and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 12.2N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
2019-11-18 09:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 08:32:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2019 09:24:06 GMT
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