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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Public Advisory Number 6
2019-11-17 15:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 171432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 102.8W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 102.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the depression is expected to either dissipate or degenerate into a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-11-17 15:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 171432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 102.8W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 102.8W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.2N 104.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.4N 105.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.7N 106.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
2019-11-17 09:40:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 08:40:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 08:40:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-11-17 09:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170839 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression remains poorly organized this morning as intrusions of dry air have caused the area of thunderstorms that was previously near the estimated center to dissipate. New clusters of convection have recently developed but they lack organization. A couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the overall circulation is less defined than it was 24 hours ago, however, the passes missed the estimated center making it difficult to determine whether a well-defined center still exists. Given the current overall lack of organization, the initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low over the system, continued intrusions of dry air associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are likely to prevent significant re-organization of the deep convection, and strengthening is not anticipated. The NHC forecast again calls for no change in wind speed, however, the system could dissipate or become a remnant low much sooner than indicated below. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 10.0N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 10.3N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 10.6N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 10.9N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 11.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E (EP1/EP212019)
2019-11-17 09:39:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 AM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Twenty-One-E was located near 10.0, -102.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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