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Tropical Depression Raymond Public Advisory Number 10
2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 170838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Raymond Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 ...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...RAIN HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 111.6W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Raymond was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 111.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected today, and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight and Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Sunday night or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Raymond is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170838 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 Although Raymond continues to produce clusters of deep convection to the east and northeast of its center, the convection is not well organized and there is no evidence of banding features. A recent ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the circulation has become elongated from north to south and that the maximum winds have decreased to around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. Southwesterly vertical wind shear has already increased over the cyclone and the shear is expected to become quite strong within the next 24 hours. As a result, weakening is anticipated and Raymond is likely to become a remnant low later today or tonight. The circulation is forecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours when it moves near Baja California. Raymond is now moving northward around 8 kt. A deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula should steer Raymond northward to north-northeastward at a faster forward speed today. After that time, Raymond or its remnants are forecast to turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it is absorbed into the aforementioned trough. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170838 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Raymond Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-11-17 09:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 170837 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0900 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAYMOND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 111.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 111.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Graphics
2019-11-17 03:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 02:32:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 02:32:10 GMT
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