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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-11-16 09:46:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160846 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212019 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 99.2W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 99.2W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.0N 100.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 8.9N 102.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.0N 103.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.4N 104.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 10.1N 106.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 10.5N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 99.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Graphics
2019-11-15 09:46:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 08:46:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Nov 2019 08:46:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-11-15 09:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150845 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Recent satellite imagery indicates that there has been a slight increase in convective banding associated with the depression overnight. The deep convection has increased and become a little better organized over the southeastern portion of the circulation, however, the center remains near the northwestern edge of the primary convective mass. Earlier ASCAT data and the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates all support an intensity of 30 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at that value. The depression has about 36 h in which to strengthen while it remains over SSTs of 28-29C and in generally low wind shear conditions. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and the early portion of the intensity forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid. By 48 hours, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is predicted by the global models as a large mid- to upper-level trough digs southward and cuts off to the west of the Baja California peninsula. The increase in shear should cause weakening, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low when it nears the southern portion of the Baja peninsula in about 72 hours. Dissipation should occur shortly thereafter as the shear increases further. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression is moving north- northwestward or 335/5 kt. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge should continue during the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone should turn north-northeastward around the aforementioned trough to the west of the Baja California peninsula. As the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow by 72 hours, it is likely to turn northward or north-northwestward before dissipating. The track guidance has trended a little faster this cycle, and the new NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but it remains near the TVCE and HCCA consensus models. Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These rains could cause in life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.5N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 23.0N 109.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-11-15 09:44:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 150844 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0900 UTC FRI NOV 15 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 7 44(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 110W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 14(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-E (EP5/EP202019)
2019-11-15 09:44:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 2:00 AM MST Fri Nov 15 the center of Twenty-E was located near 13.5, -108.6 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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