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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-10-15 22:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 152049 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
2019-10-15 22:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 16.8, -22.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 5
2019-10-15 22:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 152049 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 PM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 ...DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 22.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 22.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the island of Sal this evening and over or near the northern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Wednesday morning. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight and early Wednesday. Weakening is expected to begin by Wednesday afternoon, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches) is based on observations from the Amilcar Cabral Airport on Sal island. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight, especially over higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-10-15 22:48:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 152048 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 22.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 22.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 22.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.8N 23.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 24.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 26.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.2N 28.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 22.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2019-10-15 16:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 14:34:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2019 15:24:28 GMT
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