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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-15 16:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151433 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 The depression doesn't looking very healthy compared to 24 hours ago when tightly curved convective bands wrapped around the center. Over the past 12 hours, the convection has devolved into an elongated north-to-south band of stratiform deep-layer cloudiness with embedded clusters of moderate to deep convection. The western semicircle of the broad circulation has degraded with at least two small low-level circulations revolving southward around the mean center. A 1045Z partial ASCAT-A pass indicated that the low-level center was located west of 21W longitude, so the initial position was adjusted farther west. Intensity estimates range from T1.5/25 kt from TAFB and the partial ASCAT pass, to 33 kt and 37 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. For now, the intensity will be held at 30 kt, which is an average of these estimates. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/08 kt, but this motion is of low confidence given the broad nature of the cyclone. Surprisingly, the models remain in quite good agreement that the depression will move generally northwestward during the next couple of days and pass over or just east of the northeastern Cabo Verde Islands. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by 72 hours and beyond due to the weak and shallow system being steered by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged a little to the left or west of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more westward initial position, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models. The environmental conditions are expected to remain somewhat conducive for slight strengthening during the next 12-18 hours. Although no longer explicitly forecast, it is still possible that the depression could briefly become a tropical storm later tonight if a burst of deep convection can develop and tighten up the inner-core wind field. By late Wednesday, however, the combination of a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and SSTs less than 26C should induce steady to rapid weakening, resulting in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipating in 72-96 hours. Regardless of whether or not the depression becomes a tropical storm before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.6N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 16.5N 22.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.7N 23.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.5N 24.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 19.4N 26.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 21.6N 30.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
2019-10-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 15 the center of Fifteen was located near 15.6, -21.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 4
2019-10-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2019 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 21.6W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 21.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the eastern and northern Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could occur across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-10-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 151432 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-10-15 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 21.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 21.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 21.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.5N 22.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 23.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 24.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.4N 26.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 30.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 21.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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