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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-10-15 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 The depression has become somewhat less organized this evening. A band of deep convection has developed over the far northern portion of the circulation, but there is little convection over the remainder of the large circulation. A recent partial ASCAT-C overpass suggests that the low-level center is located well southwest of the mid-level turning noted in infrared satellite pictures, and although the scatterometer did not sample the entire circulation, it appears that the 30-kt initial intensity may be generous. The depression is moving northwestward (320 degrees) at about 9 kt. While there is a chance that the center will re-form farther north near the mid-level center and area of deep convection, the overall motion of the system is expected to be northwestward during the next day or two around the southwestward periphery of a deep-layer ridge over western Africa. The models are in generally good agreement on this overall scenario, but since the system is still in the formative stage there is a fair amount of cross-track spread. After 48 hours, the cyclone should turn toward the left as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted north of the previous track, but is not quite as far north as the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus. Deep convection is likely to return overnight during the typical nocturnal convective maximum, and low shear and warm SSTs along the path of the cyclone favor strengthening during the next day or so. The large and sprawling structure of the system, however, suggest any intensification should be slow to occur, and the new NHC intensity forecast has been reduced slightly from the previous advisory. By 36 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are expected to cause the cyclone to weaken and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Regardless of whether the depression becomes a tropical storm or not before passing near the Cabo Verde Islands, the primary threat from this system is the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 14.5N 20.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.5N 21.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 16.8N 22.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 24.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 21.6N 27.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2019-10-14 22:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 20:41:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 21:24:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-14 22:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142040 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 The large low pressure system that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday has gradually become better defined based on earlier ASCAT scatterometer wind data and recent visible satellite imagery. Several fragmented curved bands have been developing during the past several hours, especially in the northern semicircle, and the aforementioned ASCAT passes indicated that winds of 30-32 kt were present northwest of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of the scatterometer wind data and a satellite intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and the rather broad nature of the depression. A surge of mid-level dry air has recently penetrated into the inner-core region, causing some erosion of the central deep convection. However, this is expected to be a temporary condition with convection returning later tonight and early Tuesday during the normal nocturnal convective maximum period. However, the large size of the cyclone -- more than 1000 nmi wide -- should prevent any rapid or significant intensification. With very low vertical shear conditions forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, at least some modest strengthening seems likely given the unusually warm SSTs of near 28.5 deg C that the cyclone will be traversing during that time. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase from the southwest in excess of 25 kt, resulting in weakening into a remnant low shortly thereafter. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is expected to increase to more than 40 kt, which will cause rapid weakening and dissipation by the 120-h period, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and the GFS- and ECMWF-based Decay-SHIPS statistical intensity models. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 310/07 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving generally northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the models diverge significantly based on how soon the cyclone weakens and turns westward within the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The ECMWF holds on to a vertically deeper system a little longer than the GFS, UKMET, HWRF, and HMON models, resulting in a longer northwestward track. However, since the cyclone will likely have become a vertically shallow remnant low by 72 hours, the NHC official forecast track is a little to the left of ECMWF solution, closer to the TVCN and HCCA consensus model tracks at 72 and 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.2N 20.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 14.3N 21.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 22.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 16.7N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.1N 24.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 20.4N 26.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 21.4N 29.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)
2019-10-14 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 14 the center of Fifteen was located near 13.2, -20.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-14 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 142039 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 PM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 20.2W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. However, interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should closely monitor the progress of the depression since a Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the islands later tonight or early Tuesday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Fifteen was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 20.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and pass near the central portion of those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday morning. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the Cabo Verde Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in the higher terrain, especially across the eastern portion of the islands. This rainfall may cause flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur across the eastern Capo Verde Islands by Tuesday morning, and then gradually spread westward across the central portion of the islands by Tuesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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