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Hurricane Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2020-08-26 04:50:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 260250 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) STENNIS MS 34 3 5( 8) 17(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BURAS LA 34 4 10(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 890W 34 50 3(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 890W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 3 18(21) 21(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 81 16(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 280N 910W 50 15 43(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) GFMX 280N 910W 64 3 16(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 35(37) 29(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 4 59(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 18(19) 63(82) 3(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 35(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 63(65) 23(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 7( 7) 34(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 68(71) 17(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 11(11) 27(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 36 63(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 4 87(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 69(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 5( 5) 55(60) 13(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) 21(21) 16(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 1 26(27) 64(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) FORT POLK LA 50 X 2( 2) 64(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) 36(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 65(67) 29(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 17(17) 66(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) LAKE CHARLES 64 X 6( 6) 57(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) CAMERON LA 34 4 83(87) 11(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAMERON LA 50 X 56(56) 35(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) CAMERON LA 64 X 25(25) 48(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) JASPER TX 34 1 21(22) 65(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) JASPER TX 50 X 2( 2) 62(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) 41(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 32(34) 52(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 6( 6) 55(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) KOUNTZE TX 64 X 2( 2) 31(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 56(58) 34(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 16(16) 58(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 8( 8) 42(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GALVESTON TX 34 3 56(59) 13(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) GALVESTON TX 50 X 18(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GALVESTON TX 64 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 1 14(15) 33(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) HOUSTON TX 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 2 18(20) 16(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 36(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 55(57) 27(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 18(18) 34(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 15(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 34 3 8(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-08-26 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260249 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 89.5W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 89.5W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 88.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 89.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Laura (AT3/AL132020)

2020-08-26 01:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LAURA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 the center of Laura was located near 25.0, -89.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 24A

2020-08-26 01:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252349 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 700 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 89.0W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 89.0 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico overnight and on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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