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Tropical Storm Laura Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-08-25 10:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2020 08:57:53 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)

2020-08-25 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LAURA NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... ...ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCH AREA ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 the center of Laura was located near 22.9, -85.7 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-08-25 10:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 413 WTNT23 KNHC 250856 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO FREEPORT TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO FREEPORT TEXAS * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY TO ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 85.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)

2020-08-25 07:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LAURA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 the center of Laura was located near 22.6, -85.0 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 21A

2020-08-25 07:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250557 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020 ...LAURA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 85.0W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 765 MI...1165 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.0 West. While Laura has recently taken a jog to the west, it is expected to move toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) today with some decrease in forward speed likely by this evening. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, and approach the coasts of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday, and Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations: Western Cuba: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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