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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-08-25 17:05:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251505 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Laura has become a little better organized since it crossed western Cuba, and it now has a central dense overcast and some outer banding in the southern quadrant. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds of near 65 kt, 700-mb flight-level winds as high as 77 kt, and a central pressure near 990 mb. Based on these data, Laura has been upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of 65 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. The hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast track before landfall has been nudged a little to the west of the previous track in response to a westward nudge in the guidance. However, it still lies a little east of the consensus models at the time of landfall. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the mid-Atlantic States. The hurricane currently looks a little ragged, with little or no convection outside of the central dense overcast and the southern quadrant banding. This may be due to dry air in the vicinity and some light northerly shear. Conditions appear generally favorable for strengthening during the next 36 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Laura to become a major hurricane during this time. The global model are in good agreement that the hurricane should encounter increasing shear in the last 12 h before landfall, although the potential impacts on the landfall intensity are unclear. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h point. After that, some re-intensification is expected as the storm becomes extratropical. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity Wednesday night. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's track and intensity predictions. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge accompanied by large and dangerous waves from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect and residents should follow any advice given by local officials. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today, as water levels will begin to rise Wednesday. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday evening in the area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday afternoon. 4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with small streams overflowing their banks will be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 23.7N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Laura Poses Biggest Threat to US Oil in 15 Years

2020-08-25 17:00:00| OGI

On Aug. 24, the storm had shut 1.5 million bbl/d of crude oil output, 82% of Gulf of Mexico's offshore production, near the 90% outage that Katrina brought 15 years ago.

Tags: years oil biggest laura

Hurricane Laura Graphics

2020-08-25 16:59:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2020 14:59:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2020 15:24:38 GMT

Tags: graphics laura hurricane hurricane graphics

Hurricane Laura Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-08-25 16:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 25 Aug 2020 14:57:54 GMT

Tags: map storm laura hurricane

Hurricane Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

2020-08-25 16:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 251457 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 13(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) BURAS LA 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 10(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 280N 890W 34 7 29(36) 6(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 19(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 52(56) 28(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 8( 8) 23(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 34(52) 4(56) X(56) X(56) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 26(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 56(66) 10(76) X(76) X(76) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 43(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 37(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 33(35) 60(95) 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 4( 4) 78(82) 9(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 64(64) 9(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 18(66) X(66) X(66) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) X(31) X(31) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 62(77) 10(87) X(87) X(87) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 9(54) X(54) X(54) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 34(37) 52(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 56(62) 6(68) X(68) X(68) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) CAMERON LA 34 X 6( 6) 59(65) 30(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 25(25) 49(74) 4(78) X(78) X(78) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 45(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 14(14) 64(78) 9(87) X(87) X(87) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 10(59) X(59) X(59) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 58(82) 5(87) X(87) X(87) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 34(36) 52(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 56(65) 6(71) X(71) X(71) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) GALVESTON TX 34 X 5( 5) 50(55) 25(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 19(19) 31(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 39(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 27(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 7( 7) 51(58) 11(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 39(42) 42(84) 3(87) X(87) X(87) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 15(15) 44(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 15(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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