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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-08-25 04:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 250244 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 21(23) 32(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) X(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 14(42) X(42) X(42) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 8( 8) 66(74) 15(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 38(38) 21(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 22(59) X(59) X(59) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 39(52) 14(66) 1(67) X(67) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 46(70) X(70) X(70) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 25(77) X(77) X(77) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) X(40) X(40) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 48(56) 21(77) X(77) X(77) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39) X(39) X(39) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 41(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 49(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 1(53) X(53) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 46(74) 1(75) X(75) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) X(44) X(44) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) 33(83) X(83) X(83) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 36(56) X(56) X(56) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) X(33) X(33) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 16(16) 55(71) 16(87) X(87) X(87) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 24(65) X(65) X(65) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 21(40) X(40) X(40) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 45(69) X(69) X(69) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) X(40) X(40) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 35(65) 1(66) X(66) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 31(40) X(40) X(40) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 32(73) X(73) X(73) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 31(48) X(48) X(48) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) X(25) X(25) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) 12(56) 1(57) X(57) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 22(38) 1(39) X(39) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 15(33) X(33) X(33) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 23(62) 1(63) X(63) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 21(37) 1(38) X(38) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 58 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-25 04:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LAURA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 22.7, -84.0 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 21
2020-08-25 04:44:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250244 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...LAURA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 84.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle Florida Keys has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday, and Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations into tonight: Western Cuba: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-08-25 04:43:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250243 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 84.0W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 84.0W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 83.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.7N 86.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.2N 89.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.3N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.8N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.7N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 36.9N 77.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 84.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-25 01:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LAURA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 22.1, -82.8 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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