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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-21 22:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 212050 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) 1(15) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 10(37) 1(38) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 15(40) X(40) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) 1(27) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 3(24) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 18(35) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) X(23) X(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 15(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 1(29) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 45(46) 7(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 34(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) VIEQUES PR 34 6 41(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) VIEQUES PR 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 16 50(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 16 19(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAINT CROIX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) SABA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ST EUSTATIUS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BARBUDA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ANTIGUA 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 8
2020-08-21 22:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 212050 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...LAURA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 61.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Haiti has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 61.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and early Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-21 22:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 212050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 60.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-21 19:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 17:37:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 15:24:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-08-21 19:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211736 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 ...LAURA EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 60.8W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Cuba and the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Laura. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 60.8 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and the southern Haitian Peninsula through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches are expected over the remainder of Haiti, the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area area later today through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Saturday night and early Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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