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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)

2020-08-22 18:01:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LAURA STRENGTHENS SOME... As of 12:00 PM AST Sat Aug 22 the center of Laura was located near 17.8, -67.2 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-08-22 16:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 221452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 Laura is producing considerable deep convection but the cloud pattern remains disorganized. Surface observations indicate that the center is still not well defined, but the San Juan WSR-88D radar shows a mid-level center south of eastern Puerto Rico. The radar also shows heavy rains spreading over that island. The initial intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on continuity. As noted in previous discussions, the intensity forecast for Laura is dependent on its future track. The official forecast, like the previous one, moves the center over the land masses of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next couple of days which should limit intensification at least through the weekend. After Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico, warm waters should lead to strengthening and the system is likely to become a hurricane in 3 to 4 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the consensus guidance. At this time the influence of small tropical cyclone Marco, which should move over the northwestern Gulf about a day or two before Laura, is not expected to be significant. This could change in the coming days however. The initial motion estimate remains quite uncertain and is near 280/16 kt. No significant changes are being made to the official track forecast. Laura is likely to move on a generally west-northwestward track on the periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next few days. By day 4, the system should turn northwestward while moving along the southwestern side of the high. The official track forecast is only slightly north of the dynamical model consensus at 36-72 hours and essentially the same as the consensus otherwise. The GFS and its ensemble mean are significantly farther west of the official forecast at days 3 and beyond, which suggests relatively low confidence in the longer-range track of Laura. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday, with widespread river flooding possible in Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.8N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.6N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 19.4N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 20.9N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 22.4N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/0000Z 23.7N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 25/1200Z 25.2N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 27.9N 90.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 31.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics

2020-08-22 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 14:43:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Aug 2020 15:24:58 GMT

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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2020-08-22 16:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 057 FONT13 KNHC 221442 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) X(45) X(45) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 1(18) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 3(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 38(49) 8(57) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 17(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 13(53) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 21(33) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 19(36) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 21(34) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 21(35) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 18(34) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 1(42) X(42) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 30(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 5 57(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 21 48(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SANTO DOMINGO 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) AGUADILLA PR 34 84 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 11(32) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 11

2020-08-22 16:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...LAURA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 66.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for St. Maarten, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the Florida Keys later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 66.8 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near Puerto Rico this morning, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station located at Isla Culebrita recently reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). Another Weatherflow station at Sandy Point on the Island of St. Croix recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes. Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas. Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is possible in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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