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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2020-08-23 10:59:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 230859 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 6(27) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 7(32) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 6(35) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 14(54) 1(55) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 13(32) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 9(40) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 31(62) 2(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 2(33) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 13(48) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 32(39) 11(50) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 17(49) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 15(53) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 13(53) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 3(49) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 15(35) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 15(47) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 12(49) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 9(52) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 12(41) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 10(38) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 10(41) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 6(34) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 3(24) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 7(36) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 29(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 24(24) 21(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CAMAGUEY 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 3 47(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PUERTO PLATA 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SANTO DOMINGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 2(18) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) 3(30) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-08-23 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230858 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...AND ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...AND ARTEMISA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS * ANDROS ISLAND * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 70.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 70.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 70.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.8N 73.7W...OVER WATER WINDWARD PASSAGE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.9N 77.5W...INLAND EASTERN CUBA MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.2N 81.1W...INLAND WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.5N 84.2W...OVER WATER SE GULF OF MEXICO MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.9N 87.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 29.9N 92.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 35.0N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 70.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)

2020-08-23 08:19:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LAURA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN HAITI... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Aug 23 the center of Laura was located near 18.6, -70.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 13A

2020-08-23 08:19:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230618 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 13A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 AM AST Sun Aug 23 2020 Corrected location in summary section ...LAURA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN HAITI... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 70.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Andros Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, and Pinar Del Rio It should be noted that the Cuban province of Pinar Del Rio is still under a Tropical Storm Warning for Marco. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located by surface observations over southern Dominican Republic near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 70.1 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across Hispaniola today, be near or over Cuba Sunday night and Monday, and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant changes in strength are forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours while Laura moves near or over Hispaniola and Cuba. Strengthening is forecast once Laura moves into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas. Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potentially moderate river flooding is still possible in Puerto Rico today. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. These swells are expected to spread across Cuba, much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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