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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-03 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030845 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection with the center occasionally obscured beneath the northern edge of the convective canopy. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and a recent classification of T2.0 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Amazingly, 50 kt of north-northwesterly shear has not been enough to prevent deep convection from developing, likely because Omar remains in an unstable thermodynamic environment and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius. These conditions are not expected to become less conducive for convective development, and the only thing that will likely make it harder for Omar to maintain convection will be the shear vector becoming increasingly out of phase with the storm motion vector during the next couple of days. With the current round of convection ongoing, it may take a little while longer for Omar to degenerate to a remnant low, and that occurrence has been pushed to 24 hours in the NHC forecast. Dissipation has been moved to 60 hours since all global models indicate that the remnant low's circulation should open up into a trough by then. Omar is moving eastward (090/12 kt) along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A general eastward motion should continue for the next 24 hours, with Omar then turning toward the northeast by 48 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance suite, and this new prediction is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 36.3N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-03 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 694 WTNT35 KNHC 030844 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 ...OMAR REFUSES TO GIVE IN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 62.4W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 62.4 West. Omar is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a remnant low later today or tonight. The remnant low should dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-03 10:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 457 WTNT41 KNHC 030844 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Nana made landfall on the coast of Belize about 45 n mi south of Belize City around 0600 UTC today. It is estimated to be located inland and weakening over the southern part of that country with maximum winds of no more than 60 kt at this time. The small circulation will be moving over mountainous terrain today and tonight, so rapid weakening is likely. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance, and calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Although the remnants of Nana are forecast to move into the east Pacific in about 36 hours, the model guidance is in good agreement that conditions in that area will not be conducive for regeneration. The tropical cyclone continues to move a little south of west, or around 255/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward track during the next day or so. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and on the northern side of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning areas in Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, and the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning. Storm surge along the Belize coast will subside this morning as Nana moves farther inland. 2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.7N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1800Z 16.4N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 15.8N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 15.3N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-03 10:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 458 FONT15 KNHC 030844 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-03 10:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 267 WTNT31 KNHC 030844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 ...NANA INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 88.8W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 88.8 West. Nana is moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Nana will continue to move inland over Guatemala and extreme southeastern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast today and tonight, and Nana will likely become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico through early this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands and along the Honduras coast within the watch area for a few more hours. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Belize coast will gradually subside through the morning as Nana moves farther inland. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Northwest coast of Honduras: 2 to 4 inches Belize: 4 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 10 inches Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting the coasts of Honduras and Belize, and the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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