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Remnants of Nana Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-04 04:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 040239 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Nana Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 ...NANA DISSIPATES NEAR THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO BORDER... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 92.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NW OF GUATEMALA CITY GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Nana were located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday night. The remnants of Nana are forecast to move over the eastern Pacific waters near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later tonight or on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Central to western Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas: An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected, bringing event totals to 3 to 6 inches. 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected in southern Oaxaca through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on the remnants of Nana can be found in the eastern Pacific basin Tropical Weather Outlook. This product can be found under awips header MIATWOEP, WMO header ABPZ20 KNHC, and on the web at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOEP+shtml/ $$ Forecaster Brown
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Remnants of Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-09-04 04:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 040239 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF NANA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Remnants of Nana Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-04 04:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 040237 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 92.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 92.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 91.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 92.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS ON NANA CAN BE FOUND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS PRODUCT CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWOEP, WMO HEADER ABPZ20 KNHC, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/REFRESH/MIATWOEP+SHTML/ $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-04 04:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040232 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors. If the current state of the tropical depression persists through much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models. The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the southerly component of Omar's motion tonight or early Friday. By Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 35.2N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.2N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z 35.6N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 38.3N 55.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-04 04:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 ...OMAR FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 59.1W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 59.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the east is expected late tonight with a slowing of the forward speed. A turn to the northeast is expected by Friday night, followed by an increase in forward speed on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Omar should degenerate into a remnant low Friday morning then dissipate over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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