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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-09-03 19:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031741 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 ...NANA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 90.6W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM N OF GUATEMALA CITY GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nana was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 90.6 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 14 mph (23 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nana will move over western Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today and tonight, then move over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Nana will likely become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue near the center of Nana for a few more hours. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Belize coast will gradually subside today. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Central to western Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Nana affecting portions of the coasts of northwestern Caribbean Sea should subside today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-03 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031435 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Nana is weakening rapidly as it crosses northern Guatemala. There are no available observations near the center, so the initial intensity estimate of 40 kt is rather uncertain. Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in about 24 h. The global models continue to forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water. The initial motion is 260/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward track during the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new official forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models, KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue near the center of Nana for a few more hours. 2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6 inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.4N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 15.4N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 14.9N 96.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-03 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 721 WTNT45 KNHC 031435 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Surprisingly, Omar's cloud pattern has changed little since it was classified as a tropical depression yesterday morning. A shapeless deep convective cloud mass still exists about 60 miles to the southeast of the sheared, exposed surface circulation center and the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are a carbon copy of the satellite intensity classifications 24 hours ago. Therefore, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. The large-scale models as well as the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show further weakening to a remnant low in 24 hours, and dissipation as soon as Saturday morning. Because of Omar's resiliency in such a harsh upper-level wind surrounding environment, the NHC forecast shows Omar holding onto depression status for another 12-18 hours, then finally degenerating to a remnant low Friday. The initial estimated motion hasn't changed either during the past 24 hours and is toward the east, or 085/11 kt within the deep-layer westerly flow provided by a subtropical ridge situated over the central Atlantic. This due east heading should continue through Friday morning, the a turn toward the east-northeast to northeast is forecast by Friday night in response to an approaching mid-latitude frontal zone. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 35.8N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 36.2N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 37.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Nana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-03 16:35:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 031435 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-09-03 16:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 031434 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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