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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-03 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 ...OMAR BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 64.1W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 64.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast with some reduction in forward speed is forecast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Omar is likely to become a remnant low Thursday and dissipate by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-03 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 35.7N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.5N 58.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.9N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.5N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 64.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Nana Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-09-03 01:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 022349 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nana Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 ...CENTER OF NANA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 86.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of Belize north of Belize city to the Belize-Mexico border * Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft located the center of Tropical Storm Nana near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 86.8 West. Nana is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward or west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. On the forecast track, Nana will continue to pass just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras during the next couple of hours, and the center should make landfall on the coast of Belize later tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. While Nana has not strengthened over the past several hours, strengthening is expected before landfall, and Nana could become a hurricane by the time the center reaches the coast of Belize. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area in Belize tonight and early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico tonight, with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Isla Roatan and the Bay Islands tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Honduras. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nana is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday: Northern coast of Honduras: 1 to 3 inches Belize, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco: 3 to 6 inches, isolated totals of 8 inches The southeast portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo: 2 to 4 inches The eastern portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca: 6 to 8 inches, isolated totals of 12 inches These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides SURF: Swells generated by Nana are affecting the Cayman Islands, and are spreading along the coasts of Honduras and Belize, and along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022038 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar's cloud pattern is rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has become quite ill-defined. This morning's METOP-A/B scatterometer passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of the center and it's reasonable to determine that those winds are no longer present. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The latest global model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than Saturday evening. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt, within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge stretching east to west over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward. Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 36.1N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 022037 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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