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Tropical Depression Nicholas Public Advisory Number 14
2021-09-15 16:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Public Advisory Number 13
2021-09-15 12:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Public Advisory Number 13
2021-09-15 11:58:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-15 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150235 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nicholas Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observation indicate that the center of Nicholas is over the Beaumont/Port Arthur area of southeastern Texas. The cyclone is currently comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and showers, with a few patches of deep convection well removed from the center. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a combination of Doppler radar data and surface obs, and these winds are mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Nicholas should continue to weaken due to strong shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low after 24 h and dissipate completely by 72 h. It should be noted that some of the track guidance models show enough south of east motion to bring the center back over the Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. However, even if this should occur the shear and dry air should prevent any re-development. The initial motion is 060/5. While there is some spread in the guidance, it generally agrees on a slow eastward motion for 36 h or so, followed by a northward drift. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Although the winds associated with Nicholas are subsiding, due to the forecast slow motion, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. The is the last advisory on Nicholas issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible. 2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana will diminish tonight. 3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few more hours along portion of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 30.0N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-15 04:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 150235 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 7 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 7 5(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) JASPER TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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