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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-24 04:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240256 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Marco is feeling the effect of strong southwesterly shear. The center, as identified by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, is displaced to the southwest edge of the convective canopy. That said, Marco has not quite fully decoupled yet and has moved well right of the previous forecast. Data from the plane indicates that Marco has weakened; the highest flight-level winds were only 58 kt with unflagged SFMR winds just above 50 kt. Marco's intensity has been lowered slightly to 60 kt, but this is probably generous. The intensity guidance remains maddeningly inconsistent. The most recent runs of the HWRF and HMON show that there is still a chance that Marco could reach the Gulf Coast as a hurricane, despite the shear. While this seems unlikely given the current structure of the cyclone, it also seems slightly premature to rule it out entirely. After all, the shear lessened enough to allow Marco to briefly strengthen after it was strongly sheared for a time last night. The rest of the guidance shows Marco weakening further as it approaches the coast, and this seems like a more likely solution. The NHC forecast just holds Marco at 60 kt for the next 24 h, but its certainly possible it could already be weaker than that. Rapid weakening is likely by 36 h if it hasn't happened sooner and Marco is forecast to become a remnant low by early Wednesday. Marco's track is tied entirely to its intensity and structure. Once Marco becomes fully decoupled it will slow and turn westward. It is not out of the question that this could happen before Marco reaches the coast and the system never makes landfall. However, as long as the strong southwesterly upper-level flow contributes to the steering, Marco will continue to move more northward to north-northwestward. Due to the recent northward movement of Marco's center, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but it is blended to the previous forecast by about 36 h and onward. Confidence in this forecast unfortunately remains low since the model spread remains usually high. It is worth noting that Marco is a small tropical cyclone. The large area of Tropical Storm and Hurricane watches and warnings along the northern Gulf Coast is a reflection of the unusually high uncertainty in the forecast, and it is unlikely that all of those regions will experience tropical-storm-force winds or life-threatening storm surge associated with Marco. However, impacts will likely occur in some portions of the watch/warning area beginning on Monday, and heavy rain is likely across most of the region during the next couple of days. Changes to the watches and warnings are likely on Monday and users should consult products from their local weather forecast office for more information about potential hazards in their area. Key Messages: 1. Strong winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 26.8N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-24 04:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240254 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE DRY TORTUGAS FROM THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-08-24 04:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 240253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) STENNIS MS 34 X 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 2 60(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) BURAS LA 50 X 17(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BURAS LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 87 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 890W 50 34 20(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 890W 64 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 34(34) 16(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 10(10) 25(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 22(22) 34(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 30(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 11(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEESLER AB 34 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-24 04:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240251 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * CAMERON TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 87.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 17
2020-08-24 04:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240247 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas, Florida. The government of Haiti has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 76.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Western Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and tributaries to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding to this region. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman, Cayman Brac, and the Dry Tortugas on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern Florida on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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