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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-24 22:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 619 WTNT23 KNHC 242044 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND LAKE BORGNE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HURRICANE AND STORM DAMAGE RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS AND FROM MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241756 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Special Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Marco continues to weaken as the deep convection has been stripped away from the center since this morning. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system has reported peak 925 mb flight level winds of 38 kt. Although there have been a few recent higher SFMR measurements that are due to rain contamination, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed only a small area of 30-35 kt winds. Based on these data the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt and a special advisory has been issued to update the short-term intensity forecast and discontinue warnings for the Gulf coast. The showers and thunderstorms generating the tropical storm force winds to the northeast of Marco's center are forecast by most models to gradually dissipate through this evening. Based on how quickly the vortex has been spinning down and the anticipated decrease of convection, it is reasonable to assume that sustained tropical storm force winds will no longer reach the northern Gulf coast. Therefore, all wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast associated with Marco have been discontinued. Shortly after the cyclone reaches the Gulf Coast later tonight it should degenerate to a remnant low, with this low dissipating inland within a couple of days. The latest intensity forecast was adjusted downward through 12 h, but remains the same as the previous NHC forecast thereafter. Marco has been moving slowly all day, and an initial motion estimate is now 320/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. As the cyclone continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected as the system becomes steered in the low level flow. The latest forecast track was adjusted slightly northward through 12 h, but remains the same as the previous one until the system dissipates. This special advisory package replaces the 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) intermediate public advisory. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week, and tropical cyclone wind and surge watches and warnings could be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1800Z 28.7N 88.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Public Advisory Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241756 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Special Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...MARCO WEAKENS... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 88.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning for the U.S. Gulf Coast have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. Tropical cyclone wind and surge watches or warnings are likely to be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today for Tropical Storm Laura. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 88.6 West. Marco is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected to occur by Tuesday, and this motion should continue until the system dissipates in a couple of days. Aircraft and satellite derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Marco is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight and degenerate to a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the northeast of the center over water. A National Ocean Service weather station located on Petit Bois Island, Mississippi recently reported a wind gust to 35 mph (58 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by aircraft reconnaissance is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible over the coastal sections of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding along the same area. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today into tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 241756 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) STENNIS MS 34 6 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BURAS LA 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-24 19:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 044 WTNT24 KNHC 241754 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST LATER TODAY FOR TROPICAL STORM LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 88.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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