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Tropical Depression Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-08-25 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 250231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Marco Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-25 04:30:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250230 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 93.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 89.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 20A
2020-08-25 01:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LAURA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 82.8W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Ciego De Avila and Sancti Spiritus provinces. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 82.8 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane by late Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday, and Laura could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the northeast and east of the center. A wind gust of 65 mph (105 km/h) was recently reported in Havana, Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations into tonight: Western Jamaica, Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in western Cuba during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible through tonight across the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 There has been little change to the structure of Marco over the past few hours, with the deep convection and associated heavy rainfall being sheared well to the northeast of the exposed center of circulation. Based on earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft and scatterometer data, there was a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in the strongest convection located about 50-75 n mi offshore of the northern Gulf coast. Since the shower and thunderstorm activity is persisting, it is assumed that these winds are still occurring in that offshore area and the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. The exposed vortex should continue to spin down as the center of the cyclone reaches the southeastern Louisiana coast late this evening, which would result in the coastal areas being spared from experiencing sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The official NHC forecast shows Marco weakening to a tropical depression tonight, which is in agreement with the model guidance. Strong vertical wind shear should strip away any remaining convection associated with Marco at some point tonight, as indicated by GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. When the convection does diminish, most of the model guidance does not show any significant new convection developing thereafter. So it is anticipated that Marco will degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday. Marco's initial motion is northwest at 6 kt. As the cyclone continues to weaken and degenerate to a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected as the system becomes steered in the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the TVCN consensus track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week, and tropical cyclone wind and surge watches have been issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 29.0N 88.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 29.7N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1800Z 30.3N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 30.8N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242046 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST FOR TROPICAL STORM LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 88.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 88.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.7N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.3N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.8N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 88.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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