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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2020-08-23 22:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 232055 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) 2(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) 1(30) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) 5(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 5(41) X(41) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 18(37) 1(38) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 15(43) 1(44) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) 3(46) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 25(49) 2(51) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 22(48) 2(50) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 16(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 14(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 37(49) 3(52) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 36(59) 2(61) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 27(69) 1(70) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 1(37) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 38(51) 3(54) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 40(55) 3(58) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 2(27) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 39(60) 1(61) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 2(30) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 28(58) X(58) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 2(44) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) 1(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 18(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 37(58) 1(59) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) X(33) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) X(24) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 23(23) 39(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) HAVANA 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 30(30) 25(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 62(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 72 8(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-08-23 22:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232054 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG KEY AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE HAITI * INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA... ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Marco Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-08-23 22:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232054 TCDAT4 Hurricane Marco Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Shortly after the 10 AM CDT advisory was issued, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Marco measured SFMR winds of 65 to 69 kt for several minutes. A dropsonde around the same time also measured winds equivalent to 64 kt at the surface. Based on these data, it was evident that Marco had strengthened into a hurricane. Since that time, the convective pattern has changed little, and the final leg of the aircraft mission did not reveal any notable changes to the cyclone's intensity. Therefore, the initial intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is also in agreement with the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. Marco continues to move north-northwest at around 11 kt. Model guidance is in good agreement on a north-northwest and then northwest motion into Monday morning as Marco nears the northern Gulf coast. However, there has been a major shift in the track guidance beyond Monday morning, and the majority of the forecast models now keep Marco offshore of the northern Gulf coast for the next few days rather than moving it inland over Louisiana Monday afternoon. Since this shift was so abrupt, I would rather split the difference between the previous official forecast track and the latest consensus tracks until another round of model runs can confirm this new suggested track is higher confidence. Based on this shift in track, tropical storm conditions are expected farther west along the Louisiana coast, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana. It should be noted that if the trend in the models are correct, some of the impacts over portions of the north-central Gulf coast could be lessened. The current shear analysis from UW-CIMSS shows that Marco is experiencing about 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear, yet Marco has been able to slowly strengthen in this environment today, likely due to the presence of very warm waters and plenty of atmospheric moisture. By late tonight and through Monday, the SHIPS guidance suggests this shear will increase to over 30 kt. This should limit any further intensification, and could cause Marco to weaken before it nears the northern Gulf coast Monday afternoon. By Monday night, the shear is forecast to increase to close to 40 kt, which should strip the convection away from the center of the cyclone, causing it to weaken. After 48 h, Marco is now expected to become a remnant low devoid of deep convection. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the high end of the guidance through 24 h. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning on Monday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 27.1N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 28.5N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1800Z 29.8N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0600Z 29.9N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 26/1800Z 29.7N 96.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Marco Public Advisory Number 14

2020-08-23 22:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232054 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Marco Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...MARCO EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 87.8W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cameron to west of Morgan City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for.... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana * Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans * Cameron to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marco was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), a turn to the northwest is expected later tonight followed by a turn to the west-northwest by Monday night. On the forecast track, Marco will be near the Louisiana coast Monday afternoon, and move near or over the coast through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is expected over the next 24 h. Gradual weakening is expected thereafter, and Marco could become a remnant low by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late Monday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches across the Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday. This rainfall may result in scattered areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible early Monday morning near the southeast Louisiana coast. Isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Monday and Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2020-08-23 22:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 232054 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 9(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 1 10(11) 13(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) STENNIS MS 34 1 14(15) 18(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) STENNIS MS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 1 55(56) 13(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) BURAS LA 50 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BURAS LA 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 67 31(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 890W 50 6 65(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 26(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 19(20) 32(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 28(30) 12(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) 6(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 9( 9) 45(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 10(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 8(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 20(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 9(21) X(21) X(21) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) KEESLER AB 34 2 22(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) KEESLER AB 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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