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Tropical Storm Kyle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-15 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 150233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-15 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150232 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-14 22:54:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142054 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ASCAT-B data valid around 1900 UTC showed max winds a little higher than 30 kt associated with the rain-free circulation of the depression. However, since that time, the convective structure of the cyclone has degraded substantially and if it was previously producing winds of tropical-storm-force, it likely no longer is doing so at this time. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 30 kt. Only minor fluctuations in the intensity and structure of the depression are expected for the next 3 days due to strong northeasterly wind shear. Assuming the system doesn't dissipate at some point during that period of time, the upper-level winds could become less hostile early next week. The dynamical guidance generally indicates that the tropical cyclone will hang on and modest strengthening is possible early next week. No changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the multi-model consensus. Likewise, only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. The depression is still forecast to meander for the next 5 days, initially west-southwestward to westward, then northwestward over the weekend. The strength of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is the primary factor in the steering flow. While there are slight variations from model to model on the speed and heading of the tropical cyclone, they all agree that it won't move much through the early portion of next week, and possibly even beyond that. The NHC forecast essentially splits the difference between the previous official forecast, HCCA, and TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.5N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 13.3N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.5N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.6N 135.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-14 22:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 142052 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 132.7W ABOUT 1625 MI...2620 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 132.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). The system is forecast to meander generally westward today and northwestward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Minor fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next two or three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-14 22:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 142052 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 132.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 132.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.3N 133.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.2N 133.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 133.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 134.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 135.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.6N 135.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 132.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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