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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-14 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 141432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 3(20) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-14 16:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 712 WTPZ35 KNHC 141432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ...DEPRESSION PERSISTS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 131.9W ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 131.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow drift toward the west-southwest is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-14 10:42:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140841 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 131.5W ABOUT 1535 MI...2475 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 131.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west to west-southwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. After that time, the system is forecast to begin drifting northwestward. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-14 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140836 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 As has been the case for the last couple of days, the center of the tropical storm is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Some new convective cells have been forming nearer to the estimated center, but the overall cloud pattern is quite ragged-looking at this time. ASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. NOAA data buoy 41040 confirmed that the system still has a closed circulation since it reported light westerly winds while the center of Josephine passed to its north. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later today. Josephine is beginning to move into an environment of increasing vertical shear associated with a large upper-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic. Therefore, the window of opportunity for strengthening is closing soon. The official intensity forecast allows for some intensification during the next 24 hours before the upper-level winds become prohibitively strong. However, the NHC forecast is now above most of the model intensity guidance through 72 hours. The storm continues its west-northwestward motion and is moving at about 300/15 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48 hours or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the weakness in 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward while it approaches the higher-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and also lies close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 53.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.5N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.0N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 19.1N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 21.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 23.1N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 26.0N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-08-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140836 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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