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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 12
2020-08-14 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141441 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSEPHINE THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 54.7W ABOUT 575 MI...920 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 54.7 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that time, Josephine is expected to encounter upper-level winds that will not be conducive for strengthening. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Josephine this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfalls of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-14 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141441 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 54.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 54.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 54.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 59.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.9N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 30.6N 65.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-14 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141441 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 Morning visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of Josephine is located to the south or southwest of the strongest area of convection, likely due to the onset of southwesterly vertical wind shear. A just-received scatterometer pass supports an initial intensity of 35 kt, but also suggests the possibility that the circulation is longer closed. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Josephine this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity and whether a closed circulation still exists. The initial motion continues west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward along the southern edge of the higher-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has not changed significantly since the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast. Southwesterly to westerly shear should markedly increase after 12-18 h due mainly to upper-level troughing over the southwestern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast leaves open the possibility of a little strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by weakening due to the shear. The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast showing the system decaying to a remnant low by 120 h. However, an alternative scenario, supported by several of the global models, is that the cyclone decays to a tropical wave well before that time. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.1N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 20.9N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 22.5N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 30.6N 65.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-14 16:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141432 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Since the last advisory, the depression has maintained a small ragged band of convection in its southwest quadrant. Intensity fixes from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) do not indicate that the system has changed appreciably so the intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The intensity guidance is generally more bullish on the future of the depression than it has been previously. The COAMPS-TC and GFS now forecast strengthening to occur in a few days, and the latter of those models forms a symmetric CDO with an eye in simulated satellite imagery around day 5. In the short term, strong northeasterly shear should continue to limit the development potential of the cyclone, but upper-level winds could become less hostile in a few days. The main change to the NHC intensity forecast was to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone through day 5 and to show some minimal strengthening near the end of the period, though it is slightly below the intensity consensus. That said, there is perhaps equal probability that the system could become a remnant low before the environmental conditions improve, in which case no increase in the system's winds will likely occur. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast. The depression is moving west-southwestward near 5 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The global models indicate that the ridge will weaken in a day or two, allowing the system to gain a little latitude. Regardless of its exact heading, only a slow drift is expected through early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.6N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 13.4N 132.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 13.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 14.8N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 14.8N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-14 16:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 141432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.4N 132.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.2N 132.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.3N 133.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 134.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.8N 135.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 136.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 131.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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