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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130839 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Satellite images over the past several hours have shown a gradual increase in the organized deep convection associated with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed that the low level circulation has become well-defined. Based on these data, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Ten-E. The ASCAT wind data indicated 25-30 kt peak winds. This along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial advisory intensity of 30 kt. It should be noted that the ASCAT data showed that there were a few 35 kt wind vectors about 45 n mi west of the center of the system and these are presumed to be rain-contaminated. The depression is expected to be in a marginally conducive environment for strengthening throughout the 5-day forecast period. Although the system is forecast to remain over sufficiently warm waters, SHIPS guidance suggests that moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear will prevail over the system for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone may encounter some drier air which would also inhibit strengthening. The official forecast shows only slight strengthening in the next 24 h, and no change in intensity thereafter. This is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance. The cyclone's motion is 285/06 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to steer the system slowly westward over the next few days and the track model guidance is in decent agreement through that time. By 72 h, the steering flow appears to collapse, and as a result the depression is forecast to move very slowly during the 3-5 day period. Once the steering flow becomes weak the models diverge a bit with some moving the cyclone northwestward, while others move it west-southwestward. Regardless of this spread, the majority of the models agree that the cyclone will move very little during that time. The official forecast track splits the difference in the model solutions beyond day 3, and closely follows the TVCE and TVCX consensus aids throughout the 5-day forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 13.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 130839 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 2(21) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 ...DEPRESSION IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 47.9W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 130838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 130838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 129.1W ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 129.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general westward motion is expected to begin later today and then continue for the next few days along with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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