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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-09-13 01:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122358 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 700 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS TIME... ...EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 95.5W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas has been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph (19 km/h) is expected to resume later tonight and early monday. A northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday night across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-12 23:01:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122101 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Visible satellite imagery, scatterometer wind data, and earlier reconnaissance aircraft observations indicate that the circulation of Nicholas is elongated from northwest to southeast. In fact, visible satellite imagery and the aircraft data has shown that there have been several low-level swirls rotating about a mean center. This is not surprising since the tropical cyclone is still in its formative stage. The Air Force plane did not find winds any stronger than they did this morning and the ASCAT data revealed peaks winds of around 30 kt. Given the typical undersampling of the scatterometer instrument, the earlier aircraft data, and peak one-minute wind observations of 31 kt from NOAA buoy 42055 earlier today, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Nicholas will be moving over the warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, and this combined with a moist, unstable atmosphere favors strengthening. The primarily inhibiting factor appears to be moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear caused by an upper-level trough over northern Mexico. The trough is forecast to move westward and weaken during the next day or so, which could allow for a more favorable upper-level wind pattern later tonight and Monday. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for strengthening while the system moves toward the northwest Gulf coast, but the main uncertainty regarding the intensity forecast is how much time the cyclone will spend over the Gulf waters. The GFS and HWRF models, which depict a track farther east, show significantly more strengthening than the UKMET and ECMWF models which show a weaker tropical cyclone moving inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas much sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but indicates a faster rate of strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Although not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, Nicholas could approach hurricane strength when it nears the northwest Gulf coast, especially if it moves to the right of the NHC forecast track and spends more time over water. Due to this uncertainty a Hurricane Watch has been issued a for a portion of the Texas coast. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus model, but is not as high as the latest HWRF. The center of Nicholas appears to have re-formed farther north since this morning and the initial motion estimate is again a somewhat uncertain 340/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from this morning. Nicholas should move north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is located near the southeast U.S. coast. The latest runs of the various dynamical models have shown typical variability, but the overall guidance envelope has not changed too much through the first 36 hours. The GFS has been the most consistent model and its 12Z run was fairly close to the previous NHC track forecast. Therefore, the NHC track leans along the right side of the guidance envelope between the HWRF and GFS, which are a little to the right of the consensus aids. Due to the acute angle of approach of Nicholas to the coast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as small changes in the heading of the cyclone could result in differences in both the location and timing of landfall. Regardless of where Nicholas makes landfall, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts are likely over a large portion of northeastern Mexico and Texas coastal areas. After landfall, a slower north-northeastward motion is forecast, and by 72 hours the cyclone is forecast to be located between a couple of mid-level ridges, which will likely result in weaker steering currents and an even slower northeastward motion. By day 5, the global model guidance suggest that the low-level circulation will become an open trough so dissipation is indicated at that time. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Sargent late Monday and Monday night. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning Monday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 22.8N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 24.4N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.7N 96.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 30.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/0600Z 31.2N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/1800Z 31.7N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1800Z 31.9N 94.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-12 22:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122059 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 ...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 95.5W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport, Texas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sargent. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas today through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft San Luis Pass to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...2-4ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake..1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday night across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast later tonight and continue into Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-12 22:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122059 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO FREEPORT... TEXAS. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS INCLUDING ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SARGENT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO FREEPORT TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 95.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 95.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 95.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.4N 96.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.7N 96.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.4N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.2N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.9N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 95.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-12 22:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 122059 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) GALVESTON TX 34 X 15(15) 26(41) 3(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 38(41) 9(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X 6( 6) 46(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 35(37) 14(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 31(32) 41(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 41(42) 37(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 3( 3) 32(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 26(26) 43(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 21(21) 35(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 7 69(76) 4(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 21(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 21(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 29(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 250N 960W 34 86 8(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 250N 960W 50 6 15(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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