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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-07-12 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 122032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 25
2020-07-12 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 122031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 ...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 125.5W ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Christina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-07-12 22:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 122031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-07-12 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina's convective pattern continues to rapidly erode with only a small patch of moderate convection remaining in the northeastern quadrant. Based on overnight scatterometer winds of 39 kt and the significant decrease in convection since that time, it is assumed that additional vortex spindown has occurred over 23 deg C water, and the initial intensity is therefore decreased to 35 kt, which is also supported by a blend of the latest CI-satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina is moving westward or 280/11 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with Cristina expected to continue in a general westerly direction until dissipation occurs in 72-96 h over the extreme eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. Cristina should continue to spin down as the cyclone moves over near 22 deg C SSTs, becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours. It is possible that Cristina could degenerate into an open wave sooner than currently forecast due to the abundance of dry, stable air that the cyclone will be ingesting. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.7N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 24
2020-07-12 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 ...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 124.4W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 124.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristina is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight, and degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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