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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-07-12 10:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120830 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 123.3W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 123.3W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-07-12 04:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 14 14(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 22
2020-07-12 04:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 ...CRISTINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 122.2W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 122.2 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristina should steadily weaken over the next few days and become a remnant low by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-07-12 04:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 121.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 122.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates, based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51 kt at 1335Z. The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southward initial position. Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus, gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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